Tuesday, November 11, 2008

China the Commodities Trader

Given China's massive influence on the world commodities markets, one has to wonder if they have hedged their future exposure through commodity forward contracts. Being the cynical person that I am, I would not at all be surprised if we learned the following over the course of the next year:

- China locked in significant commodities exposure in industrial metals prior to the announcement of their $580B stimulus package through shell companies that transferred this exposure to the Chinese government via its sovereign wealth fund
- China is slowly and furtively selling off US Treasuries in order to fund the purchase of these USD denominated commodities
- China has been purchasing precious metals in the market to hedge against USD value declines so that they are less exposed to the impact of their massive USD exposure
- Singapore has figured this out and is moving to get ahead of this trade

While I don't think China created this worldwide economic recession, they are probably taking advantage of it.

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